China and Japan

What shall we do if there is a war in North Asia? Will there be a war? Does an Air Identification Zone(ADZ) considered as a sovereignty over a large bloc of sea and hence all rights over the area? There is a marked escalation of conflict in the North Asian region as a result of rising tension from power shifts in North Korea, a conflict over several offshore islands between China and Japan, similarly a marked aggression by Japan. This can only de-escalated through the use of discussion through various parties.

The balance of power within that region is extremely tenuous due rising powers, sleeping dragons and youthful aggression. It is painfully obvious that the next year will be the year of North Asia.

China and Japan will resolve the issue through brinkmanship and to temper the ambitions of Japan whose animal spirits have been tamed by its imperial past and decades of deflation. China will contend itself as finally a fully weighted fighter in the ring as oppose as a developing nation whose fortunes of billions hinges on it's stability. This means that the conflict now will have far reaching consequences for the future as it be used as template for future relations between the two nations.

The actions to declare some form of sovereignty over air space is to assert it's rights over the land and serve as a warning to everyone who intends to intrude the airspace. This has cause a tit-for-tat by Japan whom have an imperialistic history over China.

Japan is signaling to the world that they are intend to open for business again by stemming deflation, the markets has risen more than 50% in less than 2 years and they have beefed up their military spending openly.

China has showcased their refurbished aircraft carrier, their administrative might and diplomatic guile. The existing chess and strategic move by each side with calculated aggression is a signal that each side do not take each other lightly but rather treat each other equals.

A Japanese ship patrolling these contested waters alongside alongside an announcement of unilateral means of an ADZ means that each is testing each other's resolve. This would eventually be resolved by more urgent domestic priorities.

The gambit card is North Korea. The young dictator seems to want to impose his vision on the reclusive country in his own image and does not wish to follow the patterns of his late father. He wants to have capitalistic goods while maintaining an autocratic control over it's "communist" regime.

Any mistake by the young dictator could stir the waters and make calculated moves which often tends to the conservative side by China and more aggressive stance by Japan due to the competitive nature of South Korea- which could result in shifting economic priorities.

The dispute over contested waters will not be resolved in the near future and any signs of weakness by any side will signal an opportunity to assert its sovereignty over disputed islands.

The outcome, I believed will hinge on the sentiments of the Japanese people and not the Chinese. The Chinese is not known to be a seafaring nation and it has no wish to assert it's rights over waters which have negligible economic benefits with no well-known ports in under it's long coastline.