Monday, July 01, 2013

Math and Truth

I used to have a dream or at least some form of ideal or myth that I aspire to. But as I grew older and took decisions that worked towards this particular goal, with a singular focus towards that and without looking to screw up which means making the right path towards that. I begin to realise that it is nothing more than a myth. I was not disappointed. I know nothing comes for free and most things is never what it seems. But it also mean that I do not believe in this myth anymore.

Just to be sure, I was looking forward to some solid middle class style- and all the trappings that comes along with it. I thought that with my ability and hard work, it should not be any problem even to reach that level. But as I worked hard and have a singular focus towards succeeding or at least working to a certain level of success, I begin to meet with so much resistance towards working even towards a legitimate goal that I begin to realise that whatever I believe or think that I want is nothing more than a lie to make everyone satisfied.

I have documented these things so many times, and you can see my resume, it is filled with achievements and not like "I took part in this" or "I implemented this". I thought I was on the way up. I even begin to see and meet people that I would not normally meet- and I thought that the gods must be smiling at me and throwing me a lot benefactors to help me.

And of course, I did not rest on my laurels and continue to strive to better myself and I rose through the ranks pretty fast. But as I began to climb, the road blocks become larger and insurmountable to point that it is bothering simply pure bias, unreasonable, deceitful and unethical. I have not even reached the middle to top management level yet.

It came to a point where everything I do must have a black spot. Everyone can choose to say or hear what they want to say or listen but when the lies became the truth, I became to realise that, rather than pretend to believe the "lie" or "myth" and be the pig in "abattoir". I would rather reject it and move to somewhere else.

I can safely tell you that throughout my entire career, I did not commit a single major mistake.

Of course, then you have form a correlation with your "ideal" or "ambition" and suddenly you realise that the dispersion is much wider than you thought- you begin to question the efficacy of the experiment and conclusion in the first place.

I was helped by many managers which have given me many opportunities even if eventually they trip me up at the end. You see, I begin to realise that they did not get there by hard work or at some form of individual brilliance- they were there, and in most cases by dirty tricks or just simply luck. Throughout the flying period, I did not commit a dirty trick nor did anything that was unethical and I do not intend to compromise that for a promotion from grade 1 to grade 2- that is exactly why made me so good in the first place and so sought after even if there were some questionable actions.

I did not intend to put my life on the line for luck or for something that I know I will not be able to beat and eventually capitulating to it eventually. I still wish to have hope and some form of ideal, then to sink to a level which made me to believe in the former and lose the latter.

When your hypothesis faced criticisms or questioned by others for it's validity, you can either reject baseless claims or re-do the experiment. You see, the above is asking me, one to forget about trying and the second is asking me to forget about doing your best and believe in something intangible. I am not going to give myself to something that is intending to coerce me into believing- I really do not have faith or have belief in it- it is not a myth when it has no salience.

That is why, I am perfectly fine with being ostracized by everyone- simply because I refuse to believe to put my faith in "luck" and neither do I intend to put money behind something which is attempting to destroy me just earlier.

You see, no one really knows the truth, not even if the Rsquare is 0.9999999- because if it was just down to one variable, life would be way simple. And that is why everything and anything is a myth but also not a myth. I can only know to  my best ability- which in statistical terms means things like within a "95% confidence level" which means, I would be more right than wrong. But after a while, this hypothesis or a regression line to explain a relationship does not correspond with actual reality and phenomenon- there is a need to revisit the final conclusion and how we reach the conclusion in the first place.

Hence that is exactly why I would rather lived like a hermit and act like a loner and pretend to have a social life- then to live a life which I know to be false. The truth is always better than the most beautiful or in my case preposterous lie.

And there are some whom believed that I was not ruthless enough. I have always say I was not ambitious and I always maintained that. The biasness and deceitful actions are symptomatic of actions pigs in an abattoir. Throw in a finite amount of food, and watch the pigs fight for it. If you watch the reality shows on T.V- that is just simply writ large. You see what is a fool's gold- that is a fool's gold. How do you explain how far he/she is from the truth when he engaged in such actions.

They are not even fighting to make ends meet, they are fighting to buy the next car, the next branded handbag, to brag to their friends about their job title. Besides, smart bosses do not want such employees from my experience. What they want is people whom can grow a long term and by undercutting your own colleagues, is something they want only if they have KPIs to meet.

The people at the top do not have KPIs, they need people whom are ethical and do not posed any risk to the company. KPIs are merely means to an end them.

Think of the Soc Gen trader- he earned nothing from the trade. Think of the UBS trader whom just want to live a flashy lifestyle that's all. Closer to home, think of the SembCorp CFO, he didn't earn anything from the trade. These are the things I see at my level- trust me the people at the top laughing all the way to bank. You want the truth, this is the truth. Do you still so much about that flashy car now- I don't really think so anymore.

If I explain in mathematical terms to you, this is game theory writ large. To cooperate or not to take. It is all very sophisticated and this means we have finite amount of resources for a finite amount of needs. We then come up with sophisticated permutations, which will sort of predict what a person will act. You see that a game theory is like prisoner's dilemma, but how come no one consider that we can actually control what we are given then split what is given to us. We then run a thousand simulations on the likelihood of people action's base on a particular set of biases, we will reach a particular conclusion or "optimum" solutions based on observed data. But the computer only compute what we give them, it never asks why.

It is the same, these people whom think that they have outsmarted everyone simply because they think they have split the pie nicely among everyone and the best part for themselves, never realise that they are in a game, stupid.

There was a time when I was working very hard to "move" up the ladder. The fact was that I was trying learning everything in the ropes, just so that I can apply it everywhere. That's why I only barely meet the KPIs of all my work, just enough for me to get by. And that is why, I didn't care about being the top commissioned person or the top pictured person. Hence I have never understood, the hoopla around me. By any stretch of the imagination, I don't even have any formal awards.

It is true that I made some breakthroughs, and apparently, people are apparently imitate me or think that they know how I think- have apparently missed the point altogether. You don't win a game, you try to game the game. Thinking that someone throw you a bone, and you think you control the game by subjugating someone else whom is expected to cooperate, is like a "dog" to put it mildly.

Let's say I put it mathematically for you, The equation is efficacious, why do you intend to deviate from the equation and try to create another line which does not corresponds to reality and try to fit reality to the line.

Think about the deceitful actions that one does to extract actions from say a compliant employee. I am compliant, I meet all the proper KPIs, you should be going after the ones that do not meet them. It is the same, I fulfil the equation. But if someone doesn't, which means that you move the dots closer to the line and move it further for another just to make the dispersion equal is just simply, doesn't correspond to business reality. I am saying from a business standpoint that's all. None of those, family or girls are better guys shit.

Since one is not able to discern business truth from living truth- one is going to suffer. There are so many times you can shift your the dots to fit the line. And you will always remain a "dog" or a "prisoner" simply because, you didn't ask why, you are doing all these at all.

P/S: it took me 2 years to understand the workings of all banking consumer products, 3 months to know how to bring a product to the market, half a year to know what the treasury of a bank does. But no, I am jobless though.

Am I the best sales person, no I am not. Am I richest and most successful one, no I am not. Am I the most senior person I know my, no I am not. Let me illustrate an example for you: when I enter a new branch, the person whom were in this line for 4 years only knew unit trusts and insurance. When I was there for 1 year or so, I knew everything except insurance.

But do I know more than your average person my age, hell I am.

You want to know why sales people spend the most money, makes the most and seems to be the poorest. Do you want to know why sales incentives are made in a way which only encourages more and more- I try to push a program to life up the bottom-. Do you want to know you are always chasing something and never seem to hold onto something- my dear boy, you will never know.











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